Today I’d like to introduce you to SAM. His full name is Semi Automated Mason. SAM can lay as many bricks as three human masons. He has only one year of experience and will become more skilled and productive as he continues to learn. On the other hand, SAM could become unemployed when on-site 3-D printing of walls becomes feasible. It’s being tested now.
SAM’s story is important because it exemplifies a worldwide trend. We are still in the early days of an economic and social upheaval that will be bigger than the industrial revolution; and we’re not prepared for what’s coming. An Oxford University study identified jobs most and least likely to be replaced by automation. Looking at the list, it becomes apparent that some among us will benefit from less expensive products and services produced through automation while others lose their jobs.
It’s going to happen regardless of what presidential candidates promise about creating jobs or trade treaties. Even in China and undeveloped nations, automation is faster and cheaper than human labor. That is true in the production of both “things” and services. Human operators for elevators and long distance phone calls were displaced a long time ago. Soon automation will replace us in jobs as diverse as loan officer, manicurist, and drivers – not just drivers of taxis but also of trucks and buses.
In economic terms, this revolution means that fewer people can produce more goods and services. The total amount of wealth available will increase. Some of us will benefit from that but those who are replaced probably won’t. If you’re old enough to remember it, think of what happened when mechanized agriculture drove down the cost of eggs, milk, corn, cotton and other products. They became cheaper while previously successful farm families were devastated by agribusiness competition. Today we can see entire communities and families that are no longer self-sufficient because their jobs are gone.
The much-talked-about decline of the middle class is not primarily caused (and won’t be fixed) by tax or trade policies. Instead, it is caused in large part by technologies that are cheaper and more productive than human labor. This inevitable change brings opportunities along with threats.
What then, shall we do to prepare ourselves?
- Know the facts. It’s particularly important for elected officials, educators, economic developers, city planners and business leaders to correctly anticipate the future and plan for it. News media can improve public knowledge by researching and reporting on these subjects.
- Understand the education and skills that will be necessary for success in the future economy. I cringe when I hear someone say that, “not everyone needs to go to college.” The statement is true of course, but it masks a more important truth. Successful people will need to be able to learn at the college level. Change will come at a pace that requires continuous learning of new information and skills. The ability to read and learn at the level expected of a college freshman will be necessary for success in skilled trades, health occupations, and just about any field we can imagine. It is a great disservice to children and parents to lead them to believe that they can succeed with less.
- Prepare community and regional infrastructure for success. For example, gigabit internet service will be more important than highways and railroads. An increasing number of businesses require high-speed and high volume internet service at all of their locations. That’s often true of small startup businesses and may be true for in-home education opportunities. Communities that lack gigabit service may be left behind as badly as those that lacked electricity, roads or railroads a century ago.
- Re-design public education and libraries to support lifelong learning so that all of us can continuously acquire new knowledge and skills as we need them, regardless of our economic status or geographic location. We can discover ways to use the internet to deliver our finest instruction and most complete information to every American.
Issues of this kind should be on the agendas of national, state and local governments. Instead we are arguing about voter IDs and bathroom privileges. I don’t know all the answers, but I’m sure of one thing. The people who find the right answers will be the ones who are asking the right questions.