What if our economy could grow so rapidly as to greatly increase the amount of money, goods, and services that are available – a good thing, right? What if one result of that growth is that the future economy has no place for you – not so good? These are more than hypothetical questions for millions of people around the world. Businesses are making more products with fewer employees and lower wages. In the US, corporate profits have doubled since 2000 but inflation adjusted household income has dropped from $56,000 to $51,000. After tax corporate profits are up from 5 percent of American GDP to 11 percent – a record high level. Simultaneously employee compensation has dropped from 47 percent of GDP to 43 percent. Continue reading THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ECONOMY
Category Archives: All Posts
SUPREME COURT LOGIC
In decisions about Obamacare the Supreme Court has ruled that the federal government can levy a tax on individuals who do not purchase health insurance and that it can require employers who do not provide health benefits to pay a penalty (tax). Only a few months later the court ruled that business owners who profess religious objections to some forms of birth control can opt out of that particular portion of coverage without paying a penalty.
Reductio ad absurdum is a Latin phrase that the Court’s Justices surely encountered in their introductory logic classes. It is a method of showing that a decision or argument is absurd because it gives rise to ridiculous or unworkable conclusions. Their decisions imply that five of the justices may have been napping during logic classes. Continue reading SUPREME COURT LOGIC
REPUBLICAN SOCIALIZED HEALTHCARE?
The following words are from House Bill 1181, passed by the North Carolina House and endorsed by Governor McCrory. “It is the intent of the General Assembly to transform the State’s Medicaid program from a traditional fee-for-service system into a system that provides budget predictability for the taxpayers of this State while ensuring quality care to those in need.” Translation: Instead of paying for whatever health care is used, they want to budget a fixed amount and make doctors and hospitals absorb any additional costs. They want doctors to save money by keeping patients healthy more so than treating them after they are sick. If their plan works everyone wins. If it fails, our poorest citizens will bear the burden. Continue reading REPUBLICAN SOCIALIZED HEALTHCARE?
ANOTHER WAR FOR PEACE?
The death toll from the Islamic Civil War rises daily and American politicians are restless; telling each other and the public that the US must do something about it. They would have us join the killing in yet another effort to impose peace through war. We have been down this road several times with increasingly disastrous results yet most Republicans and many Democrats in Congress say that we can’t stand by and do nothing. But doing nothing is an option and I have yet to hear a better alternative. Continue reading ANOTHER WAR FOR PEACE?
BRING BACK HYPOCRISY
About 25 years ago, I heard columnist William Raspberry speak at Wittenberg University about our need for more hypocrisy. His opening line shocked me so I began to pay close attention to his reasoning. He introduced me to a quotation from the French philosopher Francois de La Rochefoucauld, “Hypocrisy is the homage that vice pays to virtue.” Then he said that we have come to justify behaviors that we know are wrong by pointing out that others do the same things and therefore finding them to be acceptable. Continue reading BRING BACK HYPOCRISY
NO MONEY FOR A RAISE?
Wages, taxes, the role of unions, and a new term, “income inequality” spark lively and sometimes angry discussions across our state and nation. There are people working more than one low wage job who still qualify for food stamps and can’t support a family. Others can’t find even a minimum wage job. Some of our leaders say that developing higher levels of skill and education will bring higher wages, a true statement but an unsatisfactory answer to those who are underpaid to do necessary work. The work of those who prepare and serve fast food is honest work done by honest people who deserve a living wage. The same can be said for those who mop the floors of the schools, pick the peaches that I hope to eat soon and mow the grass along the highways. Continue reading NO MONEY FOR A RAISE?
ADDICTION TO FOSSIL FUEL
Two major reports on climate change have been published in recent weeks, adding to the already imposing evidence that we humans are changing our planet in ways that threaten our own livelihoods and interests. The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations) and the American Climate Assessment are available in both summary and detailed form. They include historic trends, predictions for the future, and suggested courses of action. The reports leave no doubt about some basic conclusions. Climate change is under way. Burning fossil fuels adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and that is a major cause of climate change. Deforestation reduces the environment’s ability to remove the CO2. It is clear that human actions are the major causes of climate change. The changes on their way include extreme variance in weather – droughts in some places, floods in others, sea level rise, ocean acidification, and gradual death of coral reefs. We can slow them down, but it is too late to prevent them. Continue reading ADDICTION TO FOSSIL FUEL
COMMON CORE STANDARDS
Apparently taking their cue from right wing talk radio and Fox News pundits, leaders of the North Carolina Legislature have begun an assault on the Common Core Standards for education. Some want to repeal the standards which our school systems have been working to implement since they were adopted in 2010 by you know who – the North Carolina Legislature.
What better way to finish demoralizing underpaid and underappreciated educators than to give them the monumental job of organizing to achieve specific goals and then, at the last minute, repeal the goals? The Republicans in charge at the legislature often argue that government should be more efficient and productive, like a successful business. Today it is those legislators, not the educators who need lessons in successful business practices. The idea that we can greatly improve (or damage) education by adopting a set of standards is foolishness. It is the actions taken to achieve the goals that will make a difference. As Russell Ackoff, a renowned professor from the Wharton School of Business put it, “The only problems that have simple solutions are simple problems. The only managers with simple problems are those with simple minds.”
For many years we have known that the educational achievement of American students is lagging behind the achievement of students in many other developed nations. Since public education is largely a responsibility of states, not the federal government, the National Governor’s Association commissioned a project to study the situation and make recommendations. It was strongly supported by governors from both parties and the funding was mostly from the private sector – especially from businesses and foundations which were concerned that American graduates were not prepared for the jobs of the future (or even the present). Educators, psychologists, business leaders and other qualified people worked for years to produce the Common Core Standards which were then adopted voluntarily by 46 states. Only after this was done did the federal government begin to use the standards too.
The Common Core Standards specify very little about curriculum (books, teaching techniques etc.) In fact, the standards anticipate that there will be variance across the country in that regard, and that there may be variance from one classroom to another based the unique styles of individual teachers or the needs of students. If there is to be standardization of curriculum or teaching techniques, it would be done by states or school districts.
How should those of us who are not educators think of the standards? I see them as mileposts for each student to pass on the journey of preparation for successful employment after high school or for college. That was also the goal of the National Governor’s Association and of the private organizations that paid for much of the research on which the standards are based.
One state, Kentucky, has led the way in implementing the standards and more recently they have begun testing to measure how they are doing. The bad news is that their educational performance still lags behind other nations. The very promising news is that in two years their test scores rose 2 percent while their high school graduation rate rose 6 percent. It is too soon to attribute that progress to the common core standards but certainly they can take pride in the achievement.
Edward Deming, who is often credited with introducing scientific process improvement as a business practice, said “Management by numerical goal is an attempt to manage without knowledge of what to do.” It is vital for legislators to understand that. The Common Core Standards provide a yardstick with which we can measure progress. They should be used for planning and improvement, not for appraisal of individual performance. Repealing them will leave educators no generally accepted and standardized measurement and will take away their ability to compare results from various school districts and teaching methods – leaving us in a situation where policy changes will be based on opinion rather than data. Replacing them with state standards will take away our ability to compare our results with other states and will present new opportunities for politicians to insert their personal biases into educational policy. That is the opposite of good business practices.
Rather than taking the goalposts off the field, the legislature can be most helpful by doing its own job – not the jobs of the educators. There is massive evidence that children, especially low income children, do best in nations that provide high quality public pre-schools. The legislature should study how best to create and fund that service. Many legislators (in both parties) want performance-based pay for educators. If that is the case, legislators and school boards must provide management education for whoever will do the performance appraisals and the ongoing communication and coaching throughout the year. Successful performance appraisals don’t surprise people – they are merely summaries of discussions that have been ongoing. They are based on multiple job expectations, not on the results of a single test.
The most critical factor in business success is hiring the right people. That means that we need to provide adequate salaries. We have some great teachers who are terribly underpaid. We have lost some great teachers who had to leave their chosen profession in order to adequately support their families. The legislature can help by funding salaries comparable to professions requiring similar levels of education, skill and stress.
So, legislature, what’s it going to be? Will you choose a businesslike approach to improving quality or more tampering based on the opinions of talk show hosts?
IF WE VOTE WE WIN
“If we vote, we win.” I have heard that statement several times from earnest sounding first time candidates for public office. It is not as catchy, but I would modify their slogan to say, “If we are well informed and vote, we win.” We are fortunate to live in a republic where that is true, but it only matters if citizens accept the responsibility of selecting good candidates for public office.
Have you heard it said that, “We have the best government that money can buy.”? That is a cynical but too-often true statement. How did it happen? Perhaps we have become the best voters that money can buy – and if so, that is an even greater concern. Our national worship at the altar of profit and greed has led us to allow corporations and the extremely wealthy to influence us to an extent that threatens the existence of government by and for the people.
Our Supreme Court has ruled that corporations have all the same rights as individuals and that unlimited political spending is a “free speech” right, thereby allowing unlimited amounts of anonymous money to be used to influence our votes and our opinions on issues. There are even ways for big donors to claim charitable tax deductions for their contributions to organizations whose purpose is to convince us that we should vote the way the wealthy donors want us to vote. Their money hires marketing experts who seek ways to link their goals to our personal values and religious convictions – and it works. Special interests like petroleum companies, agribusiness, and the extremely wealthy fund immense advertising (propaganda) campaigns to convince us of their viewpoints without disclosing that they are behind the advertisements.
There are two things we can do to take control of our government. First, be as well informed as we can be. And second, ignore the advertising – all of it. An ad may say that it was sponsored by an organization with a high sounding name. Don’t trust it. It was probably paid for by someone with a lot of money who wants to influence you – someone who is working for their interest, not yours. To be well informed we should pay attention to our few legitimate, fact based news media and we should ask our questions directly of candidates in public forums. We should also trust our own instincts on issues. Most of the time, deep down, we know what is right. After we have done those things, then we will be ready to vote.
Will we trust ourselves or will we trust what the propaganda machines tell us? The propaganda machines of the Communist and Fascist powers of the 20th century demonstrated that if you say something often enough, many people will believe it despite any amount of evidence to the contrary. The propaganda machines operating in the USA today are run by special interest groups and corporations. They are very good at what they do and they often persuade both voters and government to ignore facts – the same facts that corporations take into account in their own planning. One example of this is the debate about climate change. Well documented scientific research tells us that human use of fossil fuels is contributing to climate change and that sea levels are rising as a result of that. Special interest groups, including fossil fuel companies, have run massive campaigns to convince us that it is not true. They have influenced our government so much that the State of North Carolina is removing information on the subject from their websites. The State also made it illegal for coastal planning agencies to project changes in sea level greater than the continuation of historical trends. That suits the needs of coastal real estate interests, supports re-building coastal roads that have been wiped out by storms and suits the needs of energy companies. But there is one business interest group that needs to evaluate the facts realistically. That is the flood insurance industry. Insurance companies are changing their risk zones and drastically raising insurance rates because they know that climate change and sea level rise are real.
How has government responded? Initially there was at least one intelligent response – to get the government out of the business of subsidizing flood insurance in high risk areas. But recently, after strong pressure from coastal real estate interests, the government has resumed heavily subsidizing insurance. The insurance companies and the real estate interests and the owners of coastal property will all do well and when the damage is done to their property, it will be repaired through insurance that was subsidized by taxpayers and by the national debt.
How can the same government that denies climate change and sea level rise also be the one that subsidizes higher insurance premiums made necessary by the projected rise of sea level? The answer is that the corporate propaganda machines have made it all seem very reasonable. That is just one example of big money influence on government policy. You can find many more if you look for them. We know it is wrong but we the voters elected the people who did it. There are other elections coming. If we are well informed and if we vote, we will win.
MEDICAID AND MANAGEMENT INCOMPETENCE
“What are the most important decisions that you have made in your work?” Ask that question of executives who have been successful in leading complex organizations and a clear majority will give an answer that has to do with choosing the rest of the leadership team. That is a lesson which Governor Pat McCrory is learning in the school of hard knocks while North Carolina taxpayers fund his tuition bills.
Shortly after Dr. Aldona Wos was named Secretary of Health and Human Services for the state, I pointed out that her principal qualification appeared to be the success that she and her husband had in raising money for Governor McCrory’s and President George W. Bush’s election campaigns. In a column at the time, I described her as “…a physician who has not been involved full-time in health policy or medical practice for many years…President Bush rewarded Dr. Wos by appointing her as Ambassador to Estonia. Likewise, the Governor made her DHHS Secretary and she hired a young McCrory campaign staffer, Matthew McKillip, as the Chief Policy Officer of DHHS. At age 24, he has no previous health service education or experience but he has worked for a right wing think tank and now he is leading health policy development for the state.” She proceeded to select others for the DHHS team including Ricky Diaz, a McCrory campaign staffer hired as the top public information officer. He was forced to resign after lying to the press about violations of medical record confidentiality laws.
Wos picked Carol Steckel, another conservative ideologue but one with substantial experience in Louisiana, to re-organize the Medicaid program. Steckel resigned after only eight months. Dr. Laura Gerald resigned as the State Health Director as did Dr. Rebecca King, the state’s top dentist, citing differences with Wos and the administration. Wos and the Governor publicly misinterpreted the findings of the North Carolina Auditor to create the appearance of extraordinarily high administrative costs in the Medicaid program. They used that interpretation to support their goal of privatizing Medicaid. Protests by the auditor and health professionals later demonstrated that the state’s administrative costs are actually quite moderate.
Wos changed the application and enrollment procedures for Food Stamp assistance and her new process takes months for many low income families. It is so bad that the federal government has warned the state that funding for administrative costs will be withheld if improvement is not made promptly. She implemented a new computer system for making Medicaid payments to physicians and other health care providers despite credible warnings that it was not workable, resulting in payment slowdowns that have jeopardized the financial survival of health care providers (doctors, hospitals, therapists and others) who depend heavily on Medicaid.
She is promoting an idea for addressing our troubled state mental health system by merging several quasi-governmental regional agencies into a smaller number without addressing the underlying issues about how and by whom services are delivered to living, breathing patients. Thinking that this administrative re-shuffling will improve mental health services is a bit like preventing the sinking of the Titanic by rearranging its deck chairs. It may appear that something is being done but the ship is still headed for the bottom of the ocean.
The biggest problem in this case is not with Dr. Wos. The major problem is with a Governor who has “rewarded” (punished might be a more apt description) political allies by putting them in highly responsible leadership positions for which they are unprepared. In this case the Governor chose someone who ideologically agrees with him but lacks necessary experience then he offered encouragement as she put other unqualified people in key roles. More recently he has failed to take action as a series of high level staff resigned. The debilitation of DHHS began with the appointment of unqualified personnel and that has demoralized more capable members of the department’s team.
DHHS is by far the largest and most expensive department of state government – comparable in fact to the Titanic. A ship so large cannot turn on a dime and ours is clearly in peril. Unless the Governor acts soon, DHHS will take many thousands of mentally ill and low income North Carolinians down along with some of our health care providers. It remains unclear whether Governor McCrory and Secretary Wos will go down with the ship.