What happens next if the Supreme Court rules that Obama Care can’t subsidize health insurance premiums in states that did not set up their own exchanges? The pundits are saying that neither Republicans not Democrats have a contingency plan for that. Maybe. But there may be a way for the President to snatch victory from the jaws of a defeat at the court. It might go something like this.
- Announce that Obama Care will continue as planned in states that have exchanges. “Regretfully” remind everyone that taxpayers in states without exchanges will still be paying the same taxes and subsidizing residents of states with exchanges.
- Suggest that Congress amend the law so that state exchanges are not necessary. With the amendment, the law would be right back where it is today.
- Republicans in congress would almost certainly refuse to pass the amendment.
- The President could then generously offer for the federal government to create and manage (at a modest price) an exchange for any state that doesn’t have one.
- In states that accept the offer, Obama Care continues pretty much as it is. It might not miss a beat, because the federal exchange is already serving those states.
- States that refuse the offer, probably Republican dominated states, will continue to pay taxes to support the program but their citizens will lose their subsidies. These are likely to be the same states that have turned down the Medicaid expansion.
- The successful Obama Care program continues in states with exchanges, subsidized by states without exchanges. Elected officials face the consequences of their decisions in the next election.
The President could easily choose this plan or something like it. Republican leaders who recognize that possibility may be praying for a loss at the Supreme Court. A win will create a nightmare scenario in red states – one for which Republicans have no contingency plan.
I hope it doesn’t play out this way because it will be sad to see people in need doing without health care. But I do plan to enjoy watching a lot of anti-Obama Republicans struggle to explain the mess after they create it.
Should that come to pass, it would be a justified result for those states, NC inclusive, who refused to have an exchange. I’m with you, good article.